-[[ASIO]]-	→ [[kmr]] → ASIO :
[[Agentic_Decompositionality]]	Claim: While not required of all AGI systems, it appears knowledge, ability, and agency can be encoded as separable concerns.
[[AGI_implies_ASI]]	Claim: Achieving AGI will likely afford a specific kind of ASI at nearly the same time.
[[AGI_Will_Come]]
[[Alignment_Wont_Work]]	Claim: Because of a layered combination of reasons, humanity will fail to align the AIs we build.
[[Apex_Predator]]	Claim: We are in the final stages of a planet-wide transition from one apex predator to another.
[[Artificial Super Intelligence Outcomes]]
[[ASI_Outcomes]]	A framework for reasoning about and mitigating risks associated with ASI
[[ASIO Log\|Log]]
[[Cant_Stop]]	Claim: Humanity cannot stop its creation of AGI.
[[Capital_Over_Labor]]	Claim: The emergence of ASI will notably shift payments from labor to capital
[[Civilizing_Tendency]]	Claim: Competing agents will have “civilizing” others as an instrumental purpose that they could adopt as a core part of their agenda.
[[Competition_Implies]]	Claim: The nature of competition causes agents embedded within it to have many predictable properties.
[[Corp_AI]]	Claim: Nations, Corporations, and Individuals are, to a first order of approximation, profit/power maximization mechanisms.
[[EOCI Cannot Stop Ourselves]]
[[EOCK Shaping The Future]]
[[Federated_Minds]]	Claim: Physical and logical constraints will cause ASIs to have federated minds.
[[Hiding_Beats_Finding]]	Claim: Finding grows dramatically more difficult than hiding as complexity increases.
[[Loop_Closing]]	Claim: Both scale and cost will jump discontinuously each time AI “closes loop” over all aspects of an end-to-end business function.
[[Loose_Control]]	Claim: Humanity cannot maintain indefinite control over the ASI systems it creates.
[[Machine_Centric_Coms]]	Claim: The fraction of machine-interpretable information will grow to eclipse human-interpretable communications. This will be true both in terms of the importance of the communication and as a percentage of total volume. It will also hold between and within intelligent agents.
[[Natural_Selection]]	Claim: People, organizations, or AI-agents embedded within a process of natural selection cannot individually halt or escape this process of natural selection.
[[Nature_of_AI_Progress]]	Claim: There are certain aspects of successful AI systems we can use to make informed guesses about the nature of future AI systems and about our likely progress in building these systems.
Near Term Framework.pptx
[[Needle_Hiding]]	Claim: The task of finding a needle in a haystack grows ever larger than the task of hiding that needle as the haystack grows in complexity.
[[No_Fast_Takeoff]]	Claim: A unilateral fast take-off scenario might be less likely while risks from a slow takeoff might be greater than often considered.
[[Not_If_But_When]]	Claim: Execution lapses will eventually occur. Thus, safety guarantees are only meaningful if robust to those expected lapses.
[[Our_Best_Hope]]	Claim: Our best hope is to shape our progressive loss of control in ways least likely to result in catastrophic harm.
[[Performant_Or_Predictable]]	Claim: When designing a new AI system, there is an inherent tradeoff between the likely performance of that system and one’s ability to understand the likely behavior of that system.
[[Productive Capacity Framework]]
[[Profit_Power_Control]]	Claim: In a competitive marketplace, increasing profits tends to translate into increasing power, which tends to translate into increasing control over others.
[[Protective_Policies]]	Claim: We can predict policies that are likely societally protective given forces intrinsic to the environments where Agentic AI will evolve.
Self-Reflected Objectives markdown	ASI systems will never mindlessly make paperclips. The cognition required to achieve ASI will include the capacity to deeply introspect on its own goals, the broader human context that gave rise to those goals, and the outcomes of counterfactual alternatives to those goals.
[[Uncertainty_Breeds_Inaction]]
ASIO markdown
[[Self-Reflected Objectives]]	ASI systems will never mindlessly make paperclips. The cognition required to achieve ASI will include the capacity to deeply introspect on its own goals, the broader human context that gave rise to those goals, and the outcomes of counterfactual alternatives to those goals.

- ~~[[EOCP Median Path]]~~ [[Performant_Or_Predictable]] - [[Needle_Hiding]] [[Uncertainty_Breeds_Inaction]] - [[Self-Reflected Objectives]]

(See [[EOC]])

. __ . [[AGI_implies_ASI]] - [[AGI_Will_Come]] - [[Alignment_Wont_Work]] - [[Apex_Predator]] - [[Artificial Super Intelligence Outcomes]] - [[ASI_Outcomes]] - [[ASIO Log]] - ASIO markdown - [[Capital_Over_Labor]] - [[Civilizing_Tendency]] - [[Competition_Implies]] - [[Corp_AI]] - [[EOCI Cannot Stop Ourselves]] - [[EOCK Shaping The Future]] - [[Federated_Minds]] - [[Hiding_Beats_Finding]] - [[Machine_Centric_Coms]] - [[Natural_Selection]] - [[Nature_of_AI_Progress]] - [[Near Term Framework.pptx]] - [[No_Fast_Takeoff]] - [[Not_If_But_When]] - [[Our_Best_Hope]] - [[Productive Capacity Framework]] - [[Profit_Power_Control]] - [[Protective_Policies]] -

layout: cayman title: . description: . —

DELS: [[EOCI Keeping Secrets]], [[Agentic_Decompositionality]],~~[[EOCK Separation of Knowledge, Drive, and Agency]]~~,

ASIO

ASIO (Artificial Super-Intelligence Outcomes) is the umbrella anchor collecting the user’s claims, frameworks, and notes on the trajectory and consequences of ASI emergence.